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Future-First Evaluation: A Three Horizons Approach to Systems Change Assessment
Conventional evaluation is structurally retrospective. Organized around accountability to past decisions — a theory of change, a funded intervention, a baseline — it measures whether a program did what it said it would do. This concept note proposes a Future-First Evaluation method that reorients the accountability object — from program performance to system trajectory — and uses the Three Horizons framework as its primary structuring logic.
"From those centuries we human beings bring with us
The simple solutions and songs,
The river bridges and star charts and song harmonies
All in service to a simple idea:
That we can make a house called tomorrow."
—Alberto Rios, "A House Called Tomorrow"
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